Risk management

The following information sets forth certain risk factors that the Group believes could cause its actual future results to differ materially from expected results. However, other factors could also adversely affect the Group results and so the factors discussed in this report should not be considered to be a complete set of all potential risks and uncertainties.

Business conditions and general economy

The profitability of Barclays businesses could be adversely affected by the worsening of general economic conditions in the United Kingdom, globally or in certain individual markets such as the United States, Spain or South Africa. Factors such as interest rates, inflation, investor sentiment, the availability and cost of credit, foreign exchange risk, creditworthiness of counterparties, the liquidity of the global financial markets and the level and volatility of equity prices could significantly affect the Group's customers' activity levels and financial position. For example:

• the current economic downturn or significantly higher interest rates or continued lack of credit availability to the Group's customers could adversely affect the credit quality of the Group's on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet assets by increasing the risk that a greater number of the Group's customers and counterparties would be unable to meet their obligations;
• a market downturn or further worsening of the economy could cause the Group to incur further mark to market losses in its trading portfolios;
• a further decline in the value of Sterling relative to other currencies could increase risk weighted assets and therefore the capital requirements of the Group;
• a further market downturn could reduce the fees the Group earns for managing assets. For example, a downturn in trading markets could affect the flows of assets under management; and
• a further market downturn would be likely to lead to a decline in the volume of transactions that the Group executes for its customers and, therefore, lead to a decline in the income it receives from fees and commissions and interest.

Current market volatility and recent market developments

The global financial system has been experiencing difficulties since August 2007 and financial markets have deteriorated dramatically since the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Despite measures taken by the United Kingdom and United States governments and the European Central Bank and other central banks to stabilise the financial markets, the volatility and disruption of the capital and credit markets have continued. Together with the significant declines in the property markets in the United Kingdom, the United States, Spain and other countries, these events over the past two years have contributed to significant write-downs of asset values by financial institutions, including government-sponsored entities and major retail, commercial and investment banks. These write-downs have caused many financial institutions to seek additional capital, to merge with larger and stronger institutions, to be nationalised and, in some cases, to fail. Reflecting concern about the stability of the financial markets generally and the strength of counterparties, many lenders and institutional investors have substantially reduced and, in some cases, stopped their funding to borrowers, including other financial institutions.

While the capital and credit markets have been experiencing difficulties for some time, the volatility and disruption reached unprecedented levels in the final months of 2008 and economic activity started to contract in many of the economies in which the Group operates. These conditions have produced downward pressure on stock prices and credit capacity for certain issuers. The resulting lack of credit, lack of confidence in the financial sector, increased volatility in the financial markets and reduced business activity could continue to materially and adversely affect the Group's business, financial condition and results of operations.

Credit risk

Credit risk is the risk of suffering financial loss, should any of the Group's customers, clients or market counterparties fail to fulfil their contractual obligations to the Group. The credit risk that the Group faces arises mainly from wholesale and retail loans and advances. However, credit risk may also arise where the downgrading of an entity's credit rating causes the fair value of the Group's investment in that entity's financial instruments to fall.

In a recessionary environment, such as that ongoing in the United Kingdom, the United States and other economies, credit risk increases. Credit risk may also be manifested as country risk where difficulties may arise in the country in which the exposure is domiciled, thus impeding or reducing the value of the assets, or where the counterparty may be the country itself.

Another form of credit risk is settlement risk, which is the possibility that the Group may pay a counterparty but fail to receive the corresponding settlement in return. The Group is exposed to many different industries and counterparties in the normal course of its business, but its exposure to counterparties in the financial services industry is particularly significant. This exposure can arise through trading, lending, deposit-taking, clearance and settlement and many other activities and relationships. These counterparties include brokers and dealers, commercial banks, investment banks, mutual and hedge funds and other institutional clients. Many of these relationships expose the Group to credit risk in the event of default of a counterparty and to systemic risk affecting its counterparties. Where the Group holds collateral against counterparty exposures, it may not be able to realise it or liquidate it at prices sufficient to cover the full exposures. Many of the hedging and other risk management strategies utilised by the Group also involve transactions with financial services counterparties. The failure of these counterparties to settle or the perceived weakness of these counterparties may impair the effectiveness of the Group's hedging and other risk management strategies.

The Group's credit risk governance structure, management and measurement methodologies, together with an analysis of exposures to credit risk is detailed in the ‘credit risk management’ section and the ‘credit risk’ note to the financial statements.

Barclays Capital credit market exposures

An analysis of Barclays Capital's credit market exposures is detailed on credit risk management and market risk management.

Market risk

Market risk is the risk that the Group's earnings or capital, or its ability to meet business objectives, will be adversely affected by changes in the level or volatility of market rates or prices such as interest rates, credit spreads, commodity prices, equity prices and foreign exchange rates. Market risk has increased due to the volatility of the current financial markets. The main market risk arises from trading activities. Barclays is also exposed to market risk through non-traded interest rate risk and the pension fund.

The Group's market risk governance structure, management and measurement methodologies, together with an analysis of exposures to both traded and non-traded market risk is detailed in the ‘market risk management’ section and the ‘market risk’ note to the financial statements. Pension risk is analysed in note 30.

The Group's future earnings could be affected by depressed asset valuations resulting from a deterioration in market conditions. Financial markets are sometimes subject to stress conditions where steep falls in asset values can occur, as demonstrated by recent events affecting asset backed CDOs and the US sub-prime residential mortgage market and which may occur in other asset classes during an economic downturn. Severe market events are difficult to predict and, if they continue to occur, could result in the Group incurring additional losses.

In 2007 and in 2008, the Group recorded material net losses on certain credit market exposures, including ABS CDO Super Senior exposures. As market conditions change, the fair value of these exposures could fall further and result in additional losses or impairment charges, which could have a material adverse effect on the Group's earnings. Such losses or impairment charges could derive from: a decline in the value of exposures; a decline in the ability of counterparties, including monoline insurers, to meet their obligations as they fall due; or the ineffectiveness of hedging and other risk management strategies in circumstances of severe stress.

Liquidity risk

This is the risk that the Group is unable to meet its obligations when they fall due as a result of customer deposits being withdrawn, cash requirements from contractual commitments, or other cash outflows, such as debt maturities. Such outflows would deplete available cash resources for client lending, trading activities and investments. In extreme circumstances, lack of liquidity could result in reductions in balance sheet and sales of assets, or potentially an inability to fulfil lending commitments. This risk is inherent in all banking operations and can be affected by a range of institution-specific and market-wide events including, but not limited to, credit events, merger and acquisition activity, systemic shocks and natural disasters. The Group's liquidity risk management has several components:

• intra-day monitoring to maintain sufficient liquidity to meet all settlement obligations;
• mismatch limits to control expected cash flows from maturing assets and liabilities;
• monitoring of undrawn lending commitments, overdrafts and contingent liabilities; and
• diversification of liquidity sources by geography and provider.

During periods of market dislocation, such as those currently ongoing, the Group's ability to manage liquidity requirements may be impacted by a reduction in the availability of wholesale term funding as well as an increase in the cost of raising wholesale funds. Asset sales, balance sheet reductions and the increasing costs of raising funding will affect the earnings of the Group.

In illiquid markets, the Group may decide to hold assets rather than securitising, syndicating or disposing of them. This could affect the Group's ability to originate new loans or support other customer transactions as both capital and liquidity are consumed by existing or legacy assets.

The Group's liquidity risk management and measurement methodologies are detailed in the ‘liquidity risk management’ section and the ‘liquidity risk’ note to the financial statements.

Capital risk

Capital risk is the risk that the Group has insufficient capital resources to:

• meet minimum regulatory capital requirements in the UK and in other jurisdictions such as the United States and South Africa where regulated activities are undertaken. The Group's authority to operate as a bank is dependent upon the maintenance of adequate capital resources;
• support its credit rating. A weaker credit rating would increase the Group's cost of funds;
• support its growth and strategic options.

During periods of market dislocation, increasing the Group's capital resources may prove more difficult or costly. Regulators have also recently increased the Group's capital targets and amended the way in which capital targets are calculated and may further do so in future. This would constrain the Group's planned activities and contribute to adverse impacts on the Group's earnings.

The Group's capital management objectives and processes are detailed in the ‘capital risk management’ section.

Operational risk

Operational risk is the risk of direct or indirect losses resulting from human factors, external events, and inadequate or failed internal processes and systems. Operational risks are inherent in the Group's operations and are typical of any large enterprise. Major sources of operational risk include operational process reliability, IT security, outsourcing of operations, dependence on key suppliers, implementation of strategic change, integration of acquisitions, fraud, human error, customer service quality, regulatory compliance, recruitment, training and retention of staff, and social and environmental impacts.

The Group's operational risk management and measurement methodologies are detailed in the 'operational risk management' section.

Financial crime risk

Financial crime risk is a category of operational risk. It arises from the risk that the Group might fail to comply with financial crime legislation and industry laws on anti-money laundering or might suffer losses as a result of internal or external fraud, or might fail to ensure the security of personnel, physical premises and the Group's assets.

The Group's financial crime management and processes are detailed in the ‘financial crime risk management’ section.

Regulatory compliance risk

Regulatory compliance risk arises from a failure or inability to comply fully with the laws, regulations or codes applicable specifically to the financial service industry. Non-compliance could lead to fines, public reprimands, damage to reputation, enforced suspension of operations or, in extreme cases, withdrawal of authorisations to operate.

In addition, the Group's businesses and earnings can be affected by the fiscal or other policies and other actions of various governmental and regulatory authorities in the United Kingdom, the European Union (‘EU’), the United States, South Africa and elsewhere. All these are subject to change, particularly in the current market environment where recent developments in the global markets have led to an increase in the involvement of various governmental and regulatory authorities in the financial sector and in the operations of financial institutions. In particular, governmental and regulatory authorities in the United Kingdom, the United States and elsewhere are implementing measures to increase regulatory control in their respective banking sectors, including by imposing enhanced capital requirements or by imposing conditions on direct capital injections and funding. Any future regulatory changes may potentially restrict the Group's operations, mandate certain lending activity and impose other compliance costs. It is uncertain how the more rigorous regulatory climate will impact financial institutions, including the Group.

Areas where changes could have an impact include:

• the monetary, interest rate and other policies of central banks and regulatory authorities;
• general changes in government or regulatory policy that may significantly influence investor decisions in particular markets in which the Group operates;
• general changes in the regulatory requirements, for example, prudential rules relating to the capital adequacy framework and rules designed to promote financial stability and increase depositor protection;
• changes in competition and pricing environments;
• further developments in the financial reporting environment;
• differentiation amongst financial institutions by governments with respect to the extension of guarantees to customer deposits and the terms attaching to those guarantees; and
• implementation of, or costs related to, local customer or depositor compensation or reimbursement schemes.

Two specific matters that directly impact the Group are the Banking Act 2009 and the Financial Services Compensation Scheme:

Banking Act 2009

On 21st February 2009, the Banking Act 2009 came into force which provides a permanent regime to allow the FSA, the UK Treasury and the Bank of England (the ‘Tripartite Authorities') to resolve failing banks in the UK. The Banking Act aims to balance the need to protect depositors and prevent systemic failure with the potentially adverse consequences that using powers to deal with those events could have on private law rights, and, as a consequence, wider markets and investor confidence.

These powers, which apply regardless of any contractual restrictions, include (a) power to issue share transfer orders pursuant to which there may be transferred to a commercial purchaser or Bank of England entity, all or some of the securities issued by a bank. The share transfer order can extend to a wide range of ‘securities' including shares and bonds issued by a UK Bank (including Barclays Bank PLC) or its holding company (Barclays PLC) and warrants for such and (b) the power to transfer all or some of the property, rights and liabilities of the UK bank to a purchaser or Bank of England entity. In certain circumstances encumbrances and trusts can be over-reached. Power also exists to over-ride any default provisions in transactions otherwise affected by these powers. Compensation may be payable in the context of both share transfer orders and property appropriation. In the case of share transfer orders any compensation will be paid to the person who held the security immediately before the transfer, who may not be the encumbrancer.

The Banking Act also vests power in the Bank of England to over-ride, vary or impose contractual obligations between a UK bank or its holding company and its former group undertakings (as defined in the Banking Act), for reasonable consideration, in order to enable any transferee or successor bank of the UK bank to operate effectively. There is also power for the Treasury to amend the law (save for a provision made by or under the Banking Act) by order for the purpose of enabling it to use the special resolution regime powers effectively, potentially with retrospective effect.

Financial Services Compensation Scheme

The Financial Services Compensation Scheme (the 'FSCS') was created under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and is the UK's statutory fund of last resort for customers of authorised financial services firms. The FSCS can pay compensation to customers if a firm is unable, or likely to be unable, to pay claims against it. The FSCS is funded by levies on authorised UK firms such as Barclays Bank PLC. In the event that the FSCS raises funds from the authorised firms, raises those funds more frequently or significantly increases the levies to be paid by such firms, the associated costs to the Group may have a material impact on the Group's results of operations and financial condition.

Further details of specific matters that impact the Group are included in the ‘competition and regulatory matters' note to the financial statements.

Legal risk

The Group is subject to a comprehensive range of legal obligations in all countries in which it operates. As a result, the Group is exposed to many forms of legal risk, which may arise in a number of ways. Primarily:

• the Group's business may not be conducted in accordance with applicable laws around the world;
• contractual obligations may either not be enforceable as intended or may be enforced against the Group in an adverse way;
• the intellectual property of the Group (such as its trade names) may not be adequately protected; and
• the Group may be liable for damages to third parties harmed by the conduct of its business.

The Group faces risk where legal proceedings are brought against it. Regardless of whether such claims have merit, the outcome of legal proceedings is inherently uncertain and could result in financial loss. Defending legal proceedings can be expensive and time-consuming and there is no guarantee that all costs incurred will be recovered even if the Group is successful. Although the Group has processes and controls to manage legal risks, failure to manage these risks could impact the Group adversely, both financially and by reputation.

Further details of the Group's legal proceedings are included in the ‘legal proceedings' note to the financial statements.

Insurance risk

Insurance risk is the risk that the Group will have to make higher than anticipated payments to settle claims arising from its long-term and short-term insurance businesses.

Further details of the Group's insurance assets and liabilities, including a sensitivity analysis of insurance contract liabilities, are included in the ‘insurance assets and liabilities' note to the financial statements.

Business risk

The Group devotes substantial management and planning resources to the development of strategic plans for organic growth and identification of possible acquisitions, supported by substantial expenditure to generate growth in customer business. If these strategic plans are not delivered as anticipated, the Group's earnings could grow more slowly or decline. In addition, potential sources of business risk include revenue volatility due to factors such as macroeconomic conditions, inflexible cost structures, uncompetitive products or pricing and structural inefficiencies.

Competition

The global financial services markets in which the Group operates are highly competitive. Innovative competition for corporate, institutional and retail clients and customers comes both from incumbent players and a steady stream of new market entrants, as well as recent consolidation among banking institutions in the United Kingdom, the United States and throughout Europe. The landscape is expected to remain highly competitive in all areas, which could adversely affect the Group's profitability if the Group fails to retain and attract clients and customers.

Tax risk

The Group is subject to the tax laws in all countries in which it operates, including tax laws adopted at an EU level. A number of double taxation agreements entered between two countries also impact on the taxation of the Group. Tax risk is the risk associated with changes in tax law or in the interpretation of tax law. It also includes the risk of changes in tax rates and the risk of failure to comply with procedures required by tax authorities. Failure to manage tax risks could lead to an additional tax charge. It could also lead to a financial penalty for failure to comply with required tax procedures or other aspects of tax law. If, as a result of a particular tax risk materialising, the tax costs associated with particular transactions are greater than anticipated, it could affect the profitability of those transactions.

The Group takes a responsible and transparent approach to the management and control of its tax affairs and related tax risk:

• tax risks are assessed as part of the Group's formal governance processes and are reviewed by the Executive Committee, Group Finance Director and the Board Risk Committee;
• the tax charge is also reviewed by the Board Audit Committee;
• the tax risks of proposed transactions or new areas of business are fully considered before proceeding;
• the Group takes appropriate advice from reputable professional firms;
• the Group employs high-quality tax professionals and provides ongoing technical training;
• the tax professionals understand and work closely with the different areas of the business;
• the Group uses effective, well-documented and controlled processes to ensure compliance with tax disclosure and filing obligations; and
• where disputes arise with tax authorities with regard to the interpretation and application of tax law, the Group is committed to addressing the matter promptly and resolving the matter with the tax authority in an open and constructive manner.